Colloquium talk: Tipping points in coupled human-and-natural systems and their early warning signals

TORONTO METROPOLITAN UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS

COLLOQUIUM

Dr. Chris Bauch

Department of Applied Mathematics

University of Waterloo

Tipping points in coupled human-and-natural systems and their early warning signals

Abstract: Coupled human-and-natural systems (CHANS) are becoming more widely studied, on account of both their relevance to health and sustainability and their ability to exhibit novel dynamical regimes that are not observed in human or natural systems in isolation from one another. This dynamical richness creates both challenges and opportunities for research. In this talk, I will present some dynamical systems models of CHANS and characterize their regimes; discuss novel behaviours that arise in the detection of early warning signals of tipping points (bifurcations) in these systems; and show how hybridizing dynamical systems theory with deep learning algorithms can improve the detection of these early warning signals. Study systems include land use in forest-grassland ecosystem mosaics, mitigation in social-climate systems, and vaccine programs for COVID-19 and measles. This work is motivated by questions such as: How do we know which dynamical regimes are possible? How can the use of CHANS models change recommendations about public health or climate mitigation? How can we know when a tipping point is near, and what happens afterwards?

All Faculty, staff, students and guests are welcome to attend