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Austin Pagotto

Spatial Analysis of Neighbourhood High Ratio Mortgage Delinquency in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area ©2016

In this study, research was conducted to determine if there was a relation between neighbourhood characteristics and mortgage delinquency. The purpose of this paper is to highlight which characteristics are positively or negatively related to neighbourhood mortgage delinquency in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). This paper will also visualize and explain the geographic pattern of mortgage markets within the study area with supporting maps, tables and figures. The spatial autocorrelation test in this paper show’s significant geographic clustering of similar delinquency rates. This paper also shows how the central, suburban and exurban regions of the study area experience different delinquency patterns. Finally, the regression model in this paper reveals that neighbourhood characteristics such as demographics and land-use explain 89% of the variance among mortgage delinquency by neighbourhood.