Richard Maaranen
Spatial Competition and Retail Death: Dry Cleaners in Toronto © 2001
This research paper examines the local spatial context surrounding the deaths of dry cleaner retail establishments in Toronto from 1997 to 2000. A database of dry cleaner store histories is enumerated from a number of sources and georeferenced in a Geographic Information System. The local spatial context such as nearby population and the amount of competition is measured for every dry cleaner store history. A model of retail death is then estimated using logistic regression to predict the failure of stores. Multi-site chain stores are treated separately from independent, single-site stores and differences in results are found. Store age is a significant contributing factor in death for both chains and independents where young stores are more susceptible to failure presumably due to inexperience. Chain stores tend to have lower death rates overall whereas the independent stores appear to be more vulnerable to changes in their customer base and nearby competition.