Michael Closson

This study examines spatial patterns in Bloc Quebecois (BQ) voting support between 1993 and 2006. The overall goal of the investigation was to apply global and local spatial statistical techniques to identify clusters of support and any changes in these clusters between elections. The global statistical techniques employed were the global Moran' s I statistic and Moran scatterplots, while the local techniques consisted of Moran's I boxplots and Moran's I cluster maps. The analysis revealed clustering of both BQ support and lack thereof in each of the elections. In the 1993 election large support clusters were observed in the rural regions of Quebec, while the urban centers were areas of low support. The support clusters became weaker and more dispersed over the following two elections. The 2004 election brought about a strong increase in BQ support, however, the clusters were not as large as the 1993 election and were more scattered. The results for the 2006 election again showed a weakening of support. This paper presents possible explanations of the observed outcomes with reference to BQ history and past literature and provides support for the assertion that there is a relationship between voting behaviour and location.