The State of Asylum in Canada

This project seeks to explore the current state of asylum in Canada. Particularly looking at whether asylum claims have increased in Canada over the past couple of years, the reasons for this increase, their pathways into Canada, and removals of asylum seekers. Additionally, this project seeks to understand the demographics and characteristics of asylum seekers within Canada with a view to understanding the dynamics of transnational, onward and mixed asylum/migration flows, as well as the role of geopolitics vs. internal policy factors in shaping asylum and migration flows. 

During the last decade, the number of asylum claims being made in Canada has significantly increased, from a little over 16,000 asylum claims in 2015 to over 173,000 claims in 2024. Possible reasons for this include policy changes restricting study permits, which have led to an increase in inland asylum claims made by international students. Additionally, after the 2016 and 2024 United States (US) elections of Donald Trump and the administration’s immigration measures, higher numbers of people also crossed the border from the US irregularly than previously. 

While the implications of US policies on Canadian asylum and the cap on study permits partially explain the hike in asylum numbers over the last ten years, they do not fully capture the complexities and diversities of those seeking asylum in Canada and why the numbers have increased. Additionally, an examination of the state of asylum over the last decade highlights the role of geopolitics and internal policy factors in influencing asylum flows (such as the repercussions of the Canada-US Safe Third Country Agreement). Moreover, the subsequent rise in the backlog of refugee claims has implications for the number of removals of asylum seekers from Canada and whether those have also increased. With the rise in more securitized migration policies, it becomes even more pertinent to understand what the consequences of this increase are on Canada’s asylum and refugee protection system.

To address these questions, this project has the following objectives:

1. To understand the characteristics of asylum seekers in Canada currently and over the last few years.
2. To explore why and how the number of asylum seekers seeking protection in Canada has increased over the last few years.
3. To explore the pathways by which asylum seekers come to Canada and seek protection.
4. To understand whether removals have also increased, towards which countries, and why.

This project employs both quantitative and qualitative approaches to investigate the reasons behind the increase in asylum seekers and removals in Canada. It critically reviews and analyzes relevant literature on asylum, as well as the relevant legal and policy instruments that impact asylum flows into Canada. The project will also analyze media articles that contain important information on the status and numbers of asylum seekers and removals in Canada. Statistical analysis will be conducted of publicly available information provided on the databases of Immigration, Refugees, Citizenship Canada (IRCC), the Immigration Refugee Board (IRB), the Canadian Border Services Agency (CBSA), and Statistics Canada. These numbers provide a broad overview of the numbers, characteristics, and demographics. Any information that is not publicly available will be acquired through Access to Information Requests (ATIPs) from these agencies. Lastly, exploratory interviews will be conducted with stakeholders such as academics who are experts on asylum statistics, NGOs, and civil society organizations to understand what they are seeing on the ground.

Project commenced Winter 2025. Outcomes are forthcoming.