How online betting could clinch the Best Actor award at the Oscars

With the 98th Academy Awards taking place this weekend, the race for Best Actor has become as much about betting odds as ballots.

Prediction platforms, real-time rankings and shifting headlines have turned awards season into something closer to the stock market. TMU sociology professor Paul Moore says this is no accident. 

“It’s very interesting to see the Oscar race become more like a six-week horse race,” he says. “We have betting odds setting the tone for how we think about who should win and how people are going to vote.”

Gamblification of the Oscars

Moore says prediction sites have transformed casual Oscar pools among friends into something he calls the “gamblification” of entertainment. Platforms like Gold Derby (external link)  track contenders in real time, letting fans follow the awards race the way they might follow a sports season.

“That kind of everyday play has been transformed into the gamblification of outcomes we’re paying attention to,” Moore says. “Similar to how watching a game has been amplified through sports betting.”

It’s not just the Oscars. Earlier this year, the Golden Globe Awards partnered with the crypto-based prediction market Polymarket, displaying betting-style odds during the ceremony.

“It’s not just professional sports anymore,” Moore says. “Everything’s turned into something that we can lay a bet on and gamble with what we think is going to be the outcome.”

Why recent headlines can shift the race

Recent events can also impact the odds.

At the BAFTA Awards, a nominee with Tourette syndrome unintentionally used a racist slur while Michael B. Jordan and Delroy Lindo were presenting an award – an incident that renewed attention around Sinners and its themes.

“This moment brought attention to Sinners and its racial politics,” says Moore. “I think people and Academy voters were reminded how culturally important the film was.”

Chalamet’s campaign and controversy

Timothée Chalamet drew attention with one of the more visible campaigns of the season, making a high profile push for Marty Supreme.

“He was very public about wanting the nomination and wanting the film to succeed,” Moore says. “People appreciated that he was working hard to get audiences back into movie theatres.”

When Chalamet’s comments about ballet and opera drew criticism,  (external link) his odds dipped on prediction sites. But Moore says those reactions may not matter, since Academy members had already voted before the remarks went viral.

“We think through the lens of betting odds almost like it’s a stock market,” Moore says. “But the Oscars are actually decided by a relatively small group of Academy members filling out a ballot.”

Despite the constant predictions, Moore says the final outcome remains uncertain.

“Everyone is refusing to choose a winner with confidence,” he says. “The Best Actor race is the one category that truly feels up in the air.”

Media interviews:
Paul Moore is available for media interviews to discuss the growing gamblification of awards season, how prediction sites shape Oscar buzz and the shifting momentum in this year’s Best Actor race.

Contact:

Paul Moore
psmoore@torontomu.ca